* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/05/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 48 53 57 62 65 66 66 64 62 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 48 53 57 62 65 66 66 64 62 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 47 49 53 58 63 68 70 70 69 68 SHEAR (KTS) 14 11 8 7 12 8 12 13 17 19 20 20 12 SHEAR DIR 239 241 241 177 196 234 215 271 240 258 238 263 242 SST (C) 24.7 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.5 25.8 26.2 26.8 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 106 106 108 109 112 115 118 123 130 135 137 137 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 104 105 107 110 112 115 118 123 125 126 126 125 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.7 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 57 54 52 52 50 44 45 47 50 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 108 103 102 106 107 90 77 67 30 9 -13 -39 -52 200 MB DIV 62 57 35 16 19 43 54 27 9 16 0 20 6 LAND (KM) 1622 1810 1999 2030 1917 1719 1556 1455 1323 1144 991 852 732 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.6 18.0 18.7 19.7 20.8 22.1 23.1 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 32.6 34.4 36.1 37.9 39.7 43.4 47.1 50.2 52.8 55.1 57.1 59.3 61.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 18 18 16 14 13 11 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 19 26 33 34 30 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 21. 22. 20. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 17. 20. 21. 21. 19. 17. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/05/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/05/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY