* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972008 07/05/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 35 46 52 56 57 60 62 64 64 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 35 46 52 56 57 60 62 64 64 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 24 26 28 29 31 32 34 SHEAR (KTS) 16 19 20 19 17 25 24 27 25 24 28 27 31 SHEAR DIR 76 74 80 76 75 84 80 88 82 87 65 72 76 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 159 159 160 159 159 160 160 161 160 159 154 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -52.3 -53.2 -52.1 -53.0 -52.1 -52.7 -51.8 -52.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 9 9 8 10 9 11 9 10 8 8 700-500 MB RH 84 85 84 83 82 85 84 85 84 84 82 85 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 9 8 8 7 9 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 72 83 92 88 91 101 100 100 106 111 119 124 108 200 MB DIV 40 43 69 95 87 104 65 80 68 65 75 89 75 LAND (KM) 344 311 277 252 235 240 226 208 175 172 207 207 273 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.7 98.2 98.6 99.0 99.8 100.4 100.9 101.3 101.7 102.6 103.6 105.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 4 4 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 18. 26. 32. 37. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 27. 32. 34. 38. 40. 41. 42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 15. 26. 32. 36. 37. 40. 42. 44. 44. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP972008 INVEST 07/05/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972008 INVEST 07/05/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY