* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/05/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 50 55 60 64 64 65 63 62 59 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 50 55 60 64 64 65 63 62 59 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 47 49 53 57 62 65 66 65 63 61 SHEAR (KTS) 15 9 7 13 10 8 13 12 23 20 27 16 24 SHEAR DIR 237 233 182 190 215 215 243 244 247 246 253 277 276 SST (C) 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.5 25.7 26.0 26.6 27.2 27.7 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 106 108 109 112 114 117 122 128 134 137 136 136 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 107 110 111 114 118 123 127 128 124 125 123 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 61 59 56 53 54 49 50 47 45 52 52 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 15 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 104 106 103 105 101 61 61 34 -3 0 -37 -34 -61 200 MB DIV 58 30 20 14 36 81 55 23 4 17 -2 27 11 LAND (KM) 1816 2004 2034 1926 1832 1639 1526 1366 1172 959 788 705 729 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.5 20.7 21.8 22.5 23.5 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 34.4 36.2 37.9 39.8 41.6 45.4 48.9 52.0 54.8 57.3 59.6 61.8 64.0 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 18 18 18 16 15 14 12 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 12 23 32 35 33 28 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 20. 20. 22. 19. 19. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 19. 20. 18. 17. 14. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/05/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/05/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY