* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972008 07/05/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 46 53 58 58 60 62 66 65 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 35 46 53 58 58 60 62 66 65 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 24 26 28 29 31 32 32 SHEAR (KTS) 18 20 22 22 22 21 24 26 26 23 28 29 25 SHEAR DIR 73 70 72 71 70 82 77 71 73 75 72 69 78 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.6 28.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 159 159 159 160 162 162 162 159 153 143 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 9 8 9 9 10 8 9 9 8 6 700-500 MB RH 87 85 85 84 86 86 88 86 86 84 84 80 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 11 11 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 76 85 87 90 93 95 108 103 113 112 115 101 92 200 MB DIV 43 71 94 93 82 82 89 73 103 55 81 28 45 LAND (KM) 346 304 263 242 224 220 200 175 158 146 156 240 337 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.2 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 97.8 98.2 98.6 98.9 99.2 99.8 100.5 101.3 102.1 103.0 104.1 105.6 107.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 18. 26. 33. 37. 40. 42. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 27. 32. 35. 38. 40. 43. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 26. 33. 38. 38. 40. 42. 46. 45. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP972008 INVEST 07/05/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.1/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972008 INVEST 07/05/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED