* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/05/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 50 52 56 63 69 72 72 71 72 69 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 50 52 56 63 69 72 72 71 72 69 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 49 51 56 61 68 73 75 76 77 77 SHEAR (KTS) 8 6 11 9 6 11 9 10 17 14 16 12 15 SHEAR DIR 213 183 187 202 209 214 289 232 264 239 259 238 264 SST (C) 25.1 25.2 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.3 27.1 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 109 110 112 114 116 120 128 135 137 135 136 138 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 107 110 112 114 117 125 130 129 125 125 127 128 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.1 -54.6 -54.5 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 -55.1 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 10 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 57 58 55 54 50 45 43 43 46 49 53 45 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 12 13 14 14 12 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 107 107 107 100 81 60 56 31 20 1 -17 -33 -53 200 MB DIV 24 23 22 30 62 71 46 11 19 4 -1 -1 19 LAND (KM) 2030 1999 1889 1788 1687 1563 1391 1168 886 690 618 601 593 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.6 22.8 23.8 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 36.4 38.3 40.1 42.0 43.9 47.6 51.3 54.7 57.6 60.1 62.2 64.8 67.6 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 18 18 18 17 16 13 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 6 21 34 44 30 28 29 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 6. 6. 5. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 19. 26. 28. 28. 28. 28. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 24. 27. 27. 26. 27. 24. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/05/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/05/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY