* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972008 07/05/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 45 54 60 61 61 58 57 52 51 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 45 54 60 61 61 58 57 52 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 36 39 41 44 46 48 48 47 SHEAR (KTS) 17 21 21 23 23 24 25 25 23 24 22 21 18 SHEAR DIR 69 73 67 73 88 83 76 69 89 75 71 80 78 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.0 28.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 160 159 159 161 162 163 162 159 153 146 132 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -51.7 -52.8 -51.6 -52.7 -51.7 -52.7 -51.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 8 8 10 8 10 8 10 7 8 4 700-500 MB RH 86 86 84 87 87 85 86 85 83 81 80 78 80 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 11 10 8 8 7 6 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 86 94 99 104 100 108 105 121 108 94 80 44 200 MB DIV 78 87 91 99 112 91 80 67 45 57 12 48 -4 LAND (KM) 304 268 238 226 214 195 154 122 84 76 83 141 242 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.7 17.3 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 98.5 98.9 99.3 99.6 99.9 100.6 101.3 102.1 103.1 104.1 105.2 106.4 107.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 25. 32. 35. 37. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 31. 33. 34. 32. 31. 26. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 20. 29. 35. 36. 36. 33. 32. 27. 26. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP972008 INVEST 07/05/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972008 INVEST 07/05/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY