* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/05/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 51 53 57 63 67 70 66 69 69 70 V (KT) LAND 45 46 49 51 53 57 63 67 70 66 69 69 70 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 48 50 55 60 66 70 70 69 70 70 SHEAR (KTS) 9 13 9 7 11 10 8 21 18 25 16 22 15 SHEAR DIR 185 185 187 188 167 204 199 227 213 237 235 237 246 SST (C) 25.3 25.5 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.7 27.4 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 111 112 115 116 118 124 131 137 135 135 137 139 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 110 113 114 115 121 128 131 128 125 125 126 125 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 -55.0 -55.5 -55.3 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 55 54 52 49 47 46 39 43 46 43 47 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 12 13 13 15 12 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 115 112 100 82 60 53 39 25 38 4 0 -26 -38 200 MB DIV 23 21 33 52 62 37 46 35 11 4 28 24 19 LAND (KM) 1980 1866 1764 1667 1593 1509 1261 1016 771 623 580 644 646 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.6 19.2 20.1 21.2 22.3 23.3 24.3 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 38.4 40.3 42.1 44.0 45.9 49.5 53.1 56.2 59.0 61.5 63.8 66.0 68.2 STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 18 18 17 17 14 14 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 2 16 30 43 38 28 30 34 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -3. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 12. 19. 23. 26. 23. 26. 26. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 8. 12. 19. 22. 25. 21. 24. 24. 25. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/05/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/05/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY