* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIVE EP052008 07/05/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 42 47 57 62 67 65 61 60 56 53 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 42 47 57 62 67 62 58 57 53 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 36 40 44 50 53 55 55 51 SHEAR (KTS) 18 21 23 21 21 23 21 22 21 19 15 20 16 SHEAR DIR 83 61 72 83 85 73 77 69 70 72 87 95 97 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.3 28.6 27.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 161 160 161 163 163 163 160 156 149 137 117 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 10 9 11 10 9 8 8 6 4 700-500 MB RH 86 85 87 88 86 87 85 85 81 82 79 82 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 101 109 116 111 123 113 120 122 108 89 61 51 200 MB DIV 81 99 99 110 97 87 49 63 44 51 22 46 19 LAND (KM) 195 170 145 126 106 51 22 11 9 54 126 236 339 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.7 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.4 99.7 100.0 100.2 100.8 101.5 102.4 103.5 104.6 106.0 107.5 109.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):314/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 26. 32. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 26. 31. 37. 37. 34. 34. 28. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 17. 22. 32. 37. 42. 40. 36. 35. 31. 28. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP052008 FIVE 07/05/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052008 FIVE 07/05/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY