* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972008 07/05/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 36 42 48 57 63 67 65 62 61 57 54 V (KT) LAND 25 30 36 42 48 57 63 67 65 62 61 57 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 35 39 43 46 50 52 52 50 SHEAR (KTS) 19 21 24 23 21 23 20 22 21 20 15 18 15 SHEAR DIR 80 62 75 83 83 77 75 68 71 74 88 91 93 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.4 28.8 27.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 160 160 163 164 163 161 157 151 141 119 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 4 700-500 MB RH 86 85 87 88 87 88 85 86 83 82 78 82 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 95 103 111 106 116 109 119 124 109 90 62 50 200 MB DIV 83 95 98 111 100 91 50 66 45 58 24 45 19 LAND (KM) 245 220 195 169 142 93 51 44 31 68 114 217 356 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.5 16.2 17.0 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.0 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.4 99.7 99.9 100.1 100.6 101.4 102.2 103.2 104.3 105.7 107.2 109.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 26. 32. 36. 38. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 25. 31. 36. 36. 34. 34. 29. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 17. 23. 32. 38. 42. 40. 37. 36. 32. 29. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP972008 INVEST 07/05/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972008 INVEST 07/05/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY