* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/06/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 52 54 61 67 69 71 68 67 69 70 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 52 54 61 67 69 71 68 67 69 70 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 49 51 57 64 70 72 71 70 70 71 SHEAR (KTS) 12 7 5 7 9 6 13 20 18 20 21 17 10 SHEAR DIR 203 209 207 192 191 247 222 267 225 240 224 253 251 SST (C) 25.6 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.3 27.0 27.6 27.9 27.8 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 113 115 116 118 119 126 133 136 135 134 138 138 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 113 114 115 116 123 127 128 125 124 127 124 122 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -54.6 -55.1 -55.0 -55.6 -55.5 -55.8 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 55 53 50 49 46 43 45 48 46 45 43 40 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 12 14 14 14 12 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 108 96 78 59 65 62 41 35 29 8 -3 -34 -48 200 MB DIV 19 28 31 37 52 29 -2 7 -2 12 -11 10 -1 LAND (KM) 1858 1757 1657 1586 1533 1377 1207 941 738 578 530 631 693 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.8 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.9 23.0 24.3 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 40.3 42.2 44.1 46.0 47.8 51.2 54.3 57.0 59.3 61.7 64.3 66.3 67.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 18 17 16 14 12 11 13 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 2 7 22 33 45 37 30 32 34 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 15. 22. 25. 27. 25. 24. 26. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 22. 24. 26. 23. 22. 24. 25. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/06/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/06/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY