* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIVE EP052008 07/06/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 40 44 49 52 53 52 50 49 48 44 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 40 44 49 52 53 52 50 49 48 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 32 32 32 30 SHEAR (KTS) 21 24 24 24 28 23 25 25 23 19 19 25 21 SHEAR DIR 60 72 76 75 73 85 75 87 81 76 64 70 80 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.3 28.4 26.9 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 160 160 162 162 160 159 156 148 133 110 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -51.6 -52.8 -51.5 -52.8 -51.6 -52.8 -51.9 -52.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 10 8 10 8 10 8 8 4 3 700-500 MB RH 86 87 87 85 86 84 85 85 79 79 76 77 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 11 10 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 97 101 93 95 97 99 102 94 65 48 13 8 200 MB DIV 96 90 109 87 91 86 77 33 53 1 69 39 10 LAND (KM) 250 236 222 193 164 139 165 108 87 98 164 269 277 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.5 16.1 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.6 19.3 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 99.8 100.1 100.3 100.5 100.6 101.4 102.5 103.2 103.7 104.7 106.3 108.0 109.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 7 9 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 25. 31. 35. 37. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 21. 21. 19. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 10. 15. 19. 24. 27. 28. 27. 25. 24. 23. 19. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP052008 FIVE 07/06/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052008 FIVE 07/06/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY