* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/06/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 52 56 64 67 70 70 72 73 75 75 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 52 56 64 67 70 70 72 73 75 75 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 50 53 60 66 71 73 73 74 76 78 SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 4 4 7 8 18 12 18 11 14 11 12 SHEAR DIR 218 223 199 208 244 252 251 294 252 245 236 213 232 SST (C) 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.7 27.3 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 117 119 123 129 134 137 135 136 137 137 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 112 114 117 120 123 127 129 126 123 123 124 123 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 53 50 49 51 46 44 46 51 48 48 45 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 11 12 12 14 14 14 11 12 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 87 68 52 56 58 44 30 21 0 -16 -39 -47 -53 200 MB DIV 23 23 32 49 54 35 9 4 7 13 20 5 2 LAND (KM) 1750 1655 1579 1538 1507 1305 1137 885 689 606 622 709 789 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.2 19.9 20.9 22.0 23.0 23.9 25.2 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 42.3 44.1 45.8 47.6 49.4 52.5 55.0 57.7 60.4 62.7 64.4 66.4 68.6 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 18 17 14 13 14 13 10 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 6 15 26 35 42 30 29 29 31 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -2. -4. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 23. 26. 27. 29. 30. 32. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 22. 25. 25. 27. 28. 30. 30. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/06/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/06/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY