* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIVE EP052008 07/06/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 39 42 45 48 47 44 40 38 36 32 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 39 42 45 48 47 44 40 38 36 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 29 29 28 27 25 23 SHEAR (KTS) 25 26 26 30 29 26 24 24 22 14 16 16 13 SHEAR DIR 71 77 81 72 72 70 82 91 88 87 69 63 75 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.4 28.9 28.4 27.4 26.2 24.3 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 161 162 160 157 151 146 136 124 106 88 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -52.4 -51.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 0 700-500 MB RH 85 86 83 84 84 82 82 78 75 77 79 75 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 98 97 103 107 96 105 94 76 37 11 1 3 200 MB DIV 87 103 94 100 72 47 69 39 29 -11 22 2 -23 LAND (KM) 236 218 204 177 135 106 112 109 145 209 295 246 294 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.4 20.0 20.7 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.2 102.4 102.7 103.0 103.7 104.6 105.5 106.3 107.4 108.5 110.3 112.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 392 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 30. 32. 32. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 16. 15. 13. 11. 8. 5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 10. 14. 17. 20. 23. 22. 19. 15. 13. 11. 7. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP052008 FIVE 07/06/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052008 FIVE 07/06/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY