* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/06/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 51 54 61 62 65 64 65 66 70 70 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 51 54 61 62 65 64 65 66 70 70 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 49 51 57 61 65 66 66 67 70 74 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 10 10 9 13 20 13 21 13 16 3 13 SHEAR DIR 226 219 210 233 243 227 276 239 260 245 274 350 45 SST (C) 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.5 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 119 122 126 131 136 136 136 136 136 137 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 116 118 121 124 129 127 125 123 122 123 120 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.9 -55.0 -55.5 -55.4 -55.6 -55.5 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 47 46 48 46 43 41 45 47 49 45 44 45 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 12 13 14 13 11 10 8 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 76 57 59 57 54 34 22 12 -24 -40 -64 -72 -42 200 MB DIV 27 42 51 42 40 15 -6 -10 6 -1 -3 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 1632 1566 1519 1493 1394 1252 1022 813 691 651 680 762 871 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.6 20.4 21.5 22.7 23.7 24.5 25.8 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 44.2 46.0 47.7 49.4 51.0 53.7 56.2 58.7 61.0 63.1 64.7 66.5 68.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 16 15 13 13 12 12 9 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 6 14 21 31 42 37 29 29 31 27 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 18. 21. 21. 22. 23. 26. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 17. 20. 20. 20. 21. 25. 25. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/06/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/06/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY