* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIVE EP052008 07/06/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 46 50 56 59 56 50 42 36 30 24 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 46 50 56 59 56 50 42 36 30 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 38 38 38 35 31 27 22 17 SHEAR (KTS) 25 29 32 27 25 26 22 24 19 18 19 18 13 SHEAR DIR 94 88 92 85 83 90 86 80 85 78 78 96 95 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.1 28.3 27.3 25.8 23.9 22.3 21.7 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 160 160 154 146 136 120 101 84 77 74 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.4 -51.6 -52.2 -52.7 -51.6 -52.4 -51.4 -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 10 7 7 4 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 84 82 83 82 79 77 74 77 77 78 71 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 99 100 101 89 101 94 62 44 33 23 24 9 200 MB DIV 101 100 93 75 60 53 -7 38 -24 8 14 2 -34 LAND (KM) 216 179 147 115 85 39 93 177 213 113 218 299 337 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.9 19.6 20.5 21.4 21.9 22.0 22.3 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 102.6 103.0 103.4 103.7 104.0 104.9 106.2 107.4 108.7 110.2 111.9 113.4 114.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 389 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 17. 21. 24. 23. 20. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 19. 21. 20. 16. 10. 4. -2. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 16. 20. 26. 29. 26. 20. 12. 6. 0. -6. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP052008 FIVE 07/06/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052008 FIVE 07/06/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED