* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/06/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 54 57 61 64 63 63 61 61 63 65 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 54 57 61 64 63 63 61 61 63 65 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 49 51 57 61 64 64 63 63 65 67 SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 9 7 8 14 14 23 15 20 12 4 8 SHEAR DIR 203 204 238 263 261 259 268 264 257 254 309 6 95 SST (C) 26.1 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 117 120 123 126 129 133 136 136 136 137 135 133 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 117 118 120 122 125 127 125 123 123 119 115 113 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.7 -54.9 -55.3 -55.0 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 46 48 45 43 45 42 44 45 45 46 45 42 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 9 8 7 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 56 56 54 54 48 27 20 -13 -36 -63 -74 -96 -55 200 MB DIV 50 59 52 46 22 13 -6 -4 -5 -2 0 -11 -25 LAND (KM) 1578 1539 1500 1411 1336 1154 932 763 700 722 820 879 922 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.5 20.3 21.1 22.1 23.3 24.5 25.8 26.8 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 46.2 47.9 49.6 51.0 52.4 54.9 57.3 59.6 61.6 63.3 64.8 66.1 67.1 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 15 14 13 12 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 7 16 21 24 35 40 34 28 28 28 20 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 19. 19. 19. 19. 21. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 16. 19. 18. 18. 16. 16. 18. 20. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/06/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/06/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY