* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIVE EP052008 07/06/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 43 46 50 52 49 42 34 26 21 16 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 43 46 50 52 49 42 34 26 21 16 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 37 37 36 33 29 24 19 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 26 27 28 25 24 23 18 21 16 17 14 13 12 SHEAR DIR 85 86 82 81 74 84 76 86 76 89 72 90 85 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.6 27.8 26.8 24.9 22.7 21.3 21.4 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 159 158 155 149 141 130 111 88 74 74 77 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.4 -52.1 -52.8 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 8 8 6 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 83 85 84 83 79 78 77 80 77 73 71 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 106 103 86 90 96 76 63 45 30 33 20 14 200 MB DIV 102 103 71 46 25 38 13 18 3 29 -12 -14 -13 LAND (KM) 150 121 97 91 73 56 115 244 127 124 247 330 430 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.4 22.7 22.7 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 103.2 103.6 103.9 104.4 104.8 105.7 106.8 107.9 109.4 111.1 113.1 114.6 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 8 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 436 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 16. 20. 21. 20. 16. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 13. 9. 1. -6. -12. -17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 13. 16. 20. 22. 19. 12. 4. -4. -9. -14. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP052008 FIVE 07/06/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052008 FIVE 07/06/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY