* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/07/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 68 70 74 76 74 72 66 65 66 67 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 68 70 74 76 74 72 66 65 66 67 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 62 65 67 71 73 74 73 70 67 67 68 SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 10 11 15 17 11 20 20 24 9 4 3 SHEAR DIR 209 227 261 257 248 280 233 260 238 247 242 275 231 SST (C) 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 120 123 127 128 131 136 135 136 137 136 133 127 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 118 120 121 123 126 124 124 125 121 117 109 101 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -54.5 -55.0 -54.5 -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 10 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 48 47 43 47 47 46 48 49 49 48 44 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 13 13 14 13 12 13 11 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 52 46 47 41 22 18 9 -16 -38 -64 -87 -87 -64 200 MB DIV 55 45 29 12 2 10 -1 14 10 -2 1 -8 0 LAND (KM) 1550 1513 1414 1351 1294 1068 904 781 750 808 941 1064 1149 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.6 21.4 22.4 23.8 25.3 26.9 28.4 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 48.1 49.6 51.1 52.3 53.5 55.8 57.7 59.6 61.5 63.2 64.8 65.5 65.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 12 12 10 10 11 11 10 10 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 17 21 24 29 39 37 33 29 24 19 14 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. 0. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 17. 20. 20. 19. 14. 14. 14. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 15. 19. 21. 19. 17. 11. 10. 11. 12. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/07/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/07/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY