* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIVE EP052008 07/07/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 36 38 42 46 45 39 33 27 23 19 V (KT) LAND 30 32 29 28 28 27 31 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 27 27 27 27 30 30 29 25 21 17 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 22 21 19 20 24 16 20 22 27 21 19 14 15 SHEAR DIR 87 78 77 69 72 79 56 62 77 79 76 82 101 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.5 27.8 26.2 24.2 22.7 22.0 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 161 159 157 152 148 141 124 104 88 81 89 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -52.2 -52.9 -52.5 -51.6 -52.7 -51.6 -52.9 -51.8 -52.7 -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 11 9 9 7 5 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 87 87 85 84 81 80 80 81 80 81 78 76 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 112 101 96 98 106 92 61 48 34 29 12 40 200 MB DIV 103 77 85 43 33 20 59 0 35 0 19 -6 0 LAND (KM) 59 16 -17 -26 -29 -21 10 126 258 155 166 312 462 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.5 22.0 22.0 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.1 102.6 103.0 103.5 103.9 104.8 105.6 106.9 108.4 110.0 111.3 113.1 115.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 17. 22. 24. 24. 21. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 12. 8. 2. -4. -9. -13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 6. 8. 12. 16. 15. 9. 3. -3. -7. -11. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP052008 FIVE 07/07/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052008 FIVE 07/07/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED