* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/07/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 75 77 79 81 77 76 70 65 62 60 59 V (KT) LAND 65 71 75 77 79 81 77 76 70 65 62 60 59 V (KT) LGE mod 65 72 77 80 80 81 78 74 71 67 65 63 62 SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 12 20 21 14 26 16 26 16 22 9 15 SHEAR DIR 224 249 241 238 257 245 248 251 243 255 245 231 336 SST (C) 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.7 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 123 128 131 132 135 137 135 134 135 133 129 120 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 123 125 124 127 128 122 119 119 119 112 102 94 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.7 -55.8 -55.6 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 46 42 44 45 44 42 41 45 45 48 45 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 13 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 34 34 35 17 2 4 -19 -34 -59 -65 -88 -65 -71 200 MB DIV 46 26 16 0 4 -6 4 5 6 -2 2 -8 0 LAND (KM) 1549 1432 1331 1240 1119 897 746 736 818 916 1048 1180 1173 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.7 22.5 23.5 24.8 26.3 28.0 29.5 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 49.4 51.1 52.8 54.1 55.3 57.9 60.1 61.3 61.9 63.1 65.0 65.4 64.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 12 13 12 9 7 8 11 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 26 31 36 36 32 29 29 22 14 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 13. 12. 7. 3. -1. -2. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 12. 11. 5. 0. -3. -5. -6. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/07/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/07/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY