* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIVE EP052008 07/07/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 41 44 43 37 30 23 25 25 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 32 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 26 27 29 28 26 23 19 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 21 18 20 23 19 17 23 22 19 21 19 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 70 63 75 78 73 66 69 75 74 50 80 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.0 26.8 24.8 23.1 22.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 159 157 154 149 143 131 110 92 82 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.8 -52.4 -51.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 11 9 9 7 6 4 3 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 86 84 82 83 83 80 80 78 81 76 73 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 112 103 97 99 97 94 63 53 44 18 1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 70 38 46 24 23 11 6 2 0 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -33 -43 -45 -41 -49 -6 89 241 122 99 276 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.3 21.9 22.4 22.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.1 103.4 103.9 104.3 105.4 106.5 107.9 109.5 110.8 112.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 7 9 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 23. 22. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 12. 12. 8. 3. -4. -3. -2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 19. 18. 12. 5. -2. 0. 0. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP052008 FIVE 07/07/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052008 FIVE 07/07/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY