* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/07/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 87 87 87 85 81 77 70 64 59 58 57 V (KT) LAND 80 85 87 87 87 85 81 77 70 64 59 58 57 V (KT) LGE mod 80 87 91 90 89 85 81 77 73 69 65 63 62 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 14 16 13 16 20 20 24 21 21 7 10 SHEAR DIR 233 251 242 262 286 245 267 230 238 230 252 258 348 SST (C) 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.4 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 123 126 126 128 129 129 130 132 136 138 133 127 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 119 119 119 119 118 117 118 120 121 114 107 100 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -55.2 -55.0 -55.6 -55.5 -55.8 -55.2 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 43 46 46 44 43 43 44 46 48 47 48 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 29 23 9 -3 0 -6 -30 -60 -69 -88 -102 -86 -67 200 MB DIV 38 22 0 -6 2 -2 7 6 4 -10 -6 -14 -3 LAND (KM) 1460 1382 1297 1191 1091 935 836 825 880 987 1153 1257 1224 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.7 21.1 22.1 23.1 24.3 25.6 27.0 28.7 29.9 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 50.7 52.1 53.5 54.6 55.7 57.7 59.5 61.0 62.2 63.2 63.9 64.2 64.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 11 11 10 10 9 8 9 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 23 28 33 37 33 30 30 26 19 8 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 2. -2. -8. -14. -18. -20. -21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 1. -3. -10. -16. -21. -22. -23. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/07/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/07/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY