* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/07/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 94 93 92 88 84 78 71 65 58 56 56 V (KT) LAND 90 94 94 93 92 88 84 78 71 65 58 56 56 V (KT) LGE mod 90 96 97 95 92 87 82 78 73 69 64 61 58 SHEAR (KTS) 11 15 17 12 10 21 18 27 17 28 21 17 16 SHEAR DIR 227 231 256 273 242 244 224 230 239 230 252 315 321 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 126 128 129 130 131 133 136 136 130 123 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 117 118 118 118 117 119 119 118 111 103 98 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.2 -54.8 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 48 46 48 46 47 43 47 45 46 45 44 45 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 11 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 24 13 -4 -9 -3 -22 -38 -56 -69 -83 -94 -80 -29 200 MB DIV 37 4 -6 11 0 0 18 18 10 -10 -5 17 41 LAND (KM) 1427 1376 1266 1170 1081 947 894 891 944 1062 1246 1311 1290 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.3 21.7 22.7 23.8 24.9 26.2 27.6 29.4 30.6 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 51.6 52.8 53.9 55.0 56.0 57.9 59.4 60.8 62.1 62.8 63.1 63.1 62.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 8 9 8 8 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 21 24 27 23 22 26 29 18 9 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -16. -20. -25. -28. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 3. 3. -1. -6. -11. -17. -23. -29. -31. -32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 4. 3. 2. -2. -6. -12. -19. -25. -32. -34. -34. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/07/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/07/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY