* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/08/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 106 103 101 97 90 86 79 72 62 59 57 58 V (KT) LAND 105 106 103 101 97 90 86 79 72 62 59 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 105 108 106 102 98 91 86 82 78 73 68 64 62 SHEAR (KTS) 17 17 13 8 13 12 18 20 22 26 18 12 13 SHEAR DIR 225 253 272 256 229 256 218 234 220 242 237 297 316 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 126 128 129 130 131 135 136 134 129 124 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 114 116 118 118 117 116 119 117 114 109 105 97 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -55.0 -54.6 -55.1 -54.8 -54.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 47 46 50 50 47 45 45 43 44 43 42 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 12 14 13 13 13 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 11 -6 -6 -5 -6 -44 -54 -72 -82 -90 -62 -29 -16 200 MB DIV 8 10 5 -4 -9 11 -1 9 -21 -6 14 10 34 LAND (KM) 1424 1339 1255 1171 1094 994 956 977 1076 1180 1292 1379 1278 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.8 22.3 23.5 24.6 25.8 27.3 28.5 29.6 30.8 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 52.3 53.2 54.1 55.1 56.1 57.9 59.4 60.7 61.6 62.1 62.2 62.2 62.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 10 8 9 7 6 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 20 23 25 23 22 26 24 15 8 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -17. -25. -32. -38. -42. -46. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -1. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -4. -7. -13. -18. -24. -31. -40. -43. -45. -45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -19. -26. -33. -43. -46. -48. -47. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/08/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/08/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY