* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/08/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 96 92 87 82 75 69 64 61 60 60 59 V (KT) LAND 105 101 96 92 87 82 75 69 64 61 60 60 59 V (KT) LGE mod 105 102 99 95 91 86 82 78 74 69 67 65 65 SHEAR (KTS) 18 17 10 14 16 13 22 16 26 14 9 2 5 SHEAR DIR 236 263 264 222 240 221 236 233 223 223 290 254 228 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 126 129 129 131 133 134 134 131 125 118 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 114 115 117 117 118 118 116 114 112 105 97 93 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.0 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 48 48 51 48 45 47 43 46 43 45 48 53 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 15 15 13 14 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -9 -11 -10 -35 -52 -68 -72 -81 -55 -28 22 9 200 MB DIV 18 2 -6 -14 2 11 3 2 14 14 10 45 6 LAND (KM) 1374 1307 1245 1166 1094 1007 1058 1104 1165 1280 1444 1349 1279 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.1 24.3 25.9 27.1 28.1 29.3 30.9 31.8 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 52.9 53.7 54.5 55.5 56.5 58.4 59.5 60.6 61.4 61.6 61.4 61.4 61.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 7 7 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 20 23 25 22 24 26 21 12 7 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -17. -25. -33. -39. -43. -47. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -8. -7. -4. -1. 2. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -25. -32. -39. -43. -44. -44. -45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -9. -13. -18. -23. -30. -36. -41. -44. -45. -45. -46. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/08/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/08/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY