* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/08/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 80 78 76 72 67 62 57 55 54 55 51 V (KT) LAND 90 84 80 78 76 72 67 62 57 55 54 55 51 V (KT) LGE mod 90 84 80 78 76 74 72 69 66 61 58 55 54 SHEAR (KTS) 18 12 12 11 12 16 22 22 31 24 15 19 22 SHEAR DIR 251 256 229 246 240 221 244 229 239 230 273 265 279 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 127 129 129 131 132 133 131 132 128 122 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 113 115 116 115 115 114 113 111 111 107 102 96 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -54.6 -55.1 -54.7 -54.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 46 49 47 46 46 46 46 45 44 43 44 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -8 -5 -29 -40 -52 -62 -70 -59 -57 -31 -36 -33 200 MB DIV -1 -1 -2 16 16 15 7 -1 -8 -3 16 12 16 LAND (KM) 1331 1280 1234 1188 1150 1134 1171 1236 1304 1398 1515 1430 1353 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.5 24.1 25.5 26.7 27.7 28.5 29.5 30.7 31.7 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 53.5 54.2 54.9 55.7 56.5 57.9 58.8 59.2 59.3 59.3 59.3 59.0 58.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 5 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 23 26 25 23 19 17 15 14 9 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -17. -23. -27. -30. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -19. -25. -31. -34. -35. -35. -37. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -10. -12. -14. -18. -23. -28. -33. -35. -36. -35. -39. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/08/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/08/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY