* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/08/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 67 63 62 61 58 58 55 55 57 58 59 56 V (KT) LAND 75 67 63 62 61 58 58 55 55 57 58 59 56 V (KT) LGE mod 75 66 62 60 59 60 61 62 61 60 59 58 55 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 9 8 10 14 10 15 14 19 17 24 24 SHEAR DIR 236 218 247 238 198 223 224 219 209 235 234 252 244 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 129 130 129 131 132 133 133 130 127 121 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 115 116 115 114 113 112 112 109 106 101 96 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 49 47 44 47 46 44 41 42 38 41 47 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 17 18 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -7 -34 -48 -47 -66 -64 -69 -62 -52 -24 -21 -10 200 MB DIV 6 -3 9 21 31 -3 8 -4 -17 -1 17 4 22 LAND (KM) 1262 1219 1184 1152 1129 1131 1179 1237 1321 1408 1497 1409 1335 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.0 23.6 24.2 24.8 26.0 27.0 27.9 28.9 29.8 30.9 31.9 32.9 LONG(DEG W) 54.4 55.1 55.8 56.6 57.3 58.5 59.1 59.5 59.7 59.7 59.5 59.0 58.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 24 25 25 24 24 20 18 16 12 8 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -12. -9. -5. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -10. -10. -11. -13. -14. -17. -19. -18. -16. -16. -17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -8. -12. -13. -14. -17. -17. -20. -20. -18. -17. -16. -19. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/08/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/08/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY