* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/09/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 61 61 60 60 61 60 61 62 60 60 57 V (KT) LAND 70 64 61 61 60 60 61 60 61 62 60 60 57 V (KT) LGE mod 70 64 60 59 59 60 62 63 64 64 61 57 53 SHEAR (KTS) 17 12 9 9 8 11 8 13 14 24 26 27 30 SHEAR DIR 231 254 249 189 201 247 211 240 226 256 250 286 270 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.7 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 130 130 130 132 133 133 132 129 125 119 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 116 115 115 114 113 113 111 108 104 100 93 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.3 -55.3 -55.0 -54.7 -55.1 -54.4 -54.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.8 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 47 46 49 51 49 50 43 42 40 44 46 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 13 15 14 15 16 17 18 18 18 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -35 -47 -53 -60 -70 -78 -71 -70 -44 -31 -22 -38 200 MB DIV 0 16 21 29 0 0 -1 -20 -6 12 -8 24 23 LAND (KM) 1182 1144 1112 1100 1096 1124 1167 1239 1336 1449 1472 1386 1291 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.4 23.9 24.6 25.2 26.3 27.2 28.2 29.3 30.3 31.2 32.2 33.3 LONG(DEG W) 55.4 56.1 56.8 57.5 58.1 59.0 59.6 60.0 60.2 59.9 59.3 58.8 58.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 27 24 23 22 20 21 14 10 7 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -9. -7. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -10. -9. -8. -10. -10. -13. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/09/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/09/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY