* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/09/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 64 64 64 64 62 61 58 57 57 56 54 V (KT) LAND 65 63 64 64 64 64 62 61 58 57 57 56 54 V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 61 61 62 62 62 61 60 57 55 53 50 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 9 10 16 14 17 14 26 24 27 21 26 SHEAR DIR 235 229 187 196 225 219 230 216 238 238 252 259 261 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 130 132 134 134 133 132 128 123 121 116 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 116 117 119 118 114 112 112 106 102 101 98 91 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -54.9 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.9 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 45 47 47 46 45 45 42 39 40 43 43 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 16 17 18 19 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -36 -44 -54 -69 -64 -93 -79 -70 -28 -22 -10 -19 200 MB DIV 20 21 29 5 6 6 -12 -10 19 30 18 21 8 LAND (KM) 1136 1111 1094 1089 1101 1143 1229 1313 1405 1444 1407 1313 1176 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.8 24.4 25.3 26.1 27.3 28.2 29.2 30.3 31.0 31.5 32.5 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 56.1 56.8 57.4 58.3 59.1 60.2 60.2 60.5 61.0 61.0 60.4 60.0 59.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 10 11 9 6 5 6 5 3 4 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 27 25 23 23 24 21 15 10 6 5 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/09/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/09/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY