* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/09/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 63 63 62 60 58 56 53 52 51 48 V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 63 63 62 60 58 56 53 52 51 48 V (KT) LGE mod 65 64 63 63 63 64 63 61 58 55 52 50 48 SHEAR (KTS) 14 10 11 14 14 15 22 24 27 28 28 31 29 SHEAR DIR 233 216 210 238 245 215 229 224 247 248 253 255 271 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 131 132 133 134 133 130 127 124 122 118 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 116 117 117 116 113 109 105 101 100 99 93 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.0 -54.8 -55.0 -55.3 -54.9 -55.2 -54.5 -55.0 -54.7 -55.3 -55.1 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 47 48 45 44 47 44 44 40 45 45 47 45 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 13 13 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -42 -54 -66 -61 -76 -81 -79 -58 -47 -34 -28 -27 200 MB DIV 22 24 7 2 -3 -11 -6 1 28 2 26 6 16 LAND (KM) 1077 1041 1014 1030 1055 1123 1199 1294 1377 1433 1431 1330 1166 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.1 24.6 25.3 26.0 27.3 28.4 29.4 30.2 30.7 31.0 32.0 33.7 LONG(DEG W) 57.0 57.8 58.6 59.2 59.7 60.6 61.3 61.5 61.5 61.4 61.5 61.3 60.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 3 2 3 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 24 21 23 25 25 20 12 9 7 6 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -17. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/09/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/09/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY