* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/09/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 88 88 87 83 79 75 70 63 59 55 55 V (KT) LAND 85 88 88 88 87 83 79 75 70 63 59 55 55 V (KT) LGE mod 85 90 91 89 87 82 77 73 69 65 60 56 54 SHEAR (KTS) 14 13 14 16 13 18 15 22 23 31 20 25 16 SHEAR DIR 185 192 213 220 219 217 204 232 221 223 217 238 228 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.4 25.8 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 132 133 134 134 132 129 124 120 115 110 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 116 117 116 114 110 107 103 99 96 93 89 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.8 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 47 43 42 45 43 42 38 39 43 45 50 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 18 18 19 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -56 -68 -65 -71 -96 -92 -76 -34 -22 -2 -20 -12 200 MB DIV 37 11 0 -9 -3 -8 10 16 15 13 9 17 48 LAND (KM) 1068 1059 1058 1080 1106 1186 1264 1349 1429 1390 1308 1215 1117 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.1 25.6 26.3 26.9 28.1 29.0 29.9 30.7 31.4 32.2 33.2 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 57.8 58.5 59.1 59.7 60.2 60.9 61.2 61.4 61.5 61.5 61.3 60.8 60.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 24 24 25 23 16 10 7 5 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -20. -25. -28. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -20. -23. -27. -28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -10. -15. -22. -26. -30. -30. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/09/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/09/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY