* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/10/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 92 91 90 87 84 79 72 65 59 54 51 V (KT) LAND 90 93 92 91 90 87 84 79 72 65 59 54 51 V (KT) LGE mod 90 95 96 93 90 85 80 75 70 64 58 54 50 SHEAR (KTS) 12 16 14 9 7 14 14 22 27 27 30 31 30 SHEAR DIR 189 214 228 234 204 234 209 253 238 266 270 288 293 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.1 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 133 134 134 133 129 125 119 115 111 105 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 115 116 115 113 108 104 99 96 94 90 86 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 -54.5 -54.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -55.4 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 41 43 45 43 40 39 37 40 42 47 47 49 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 15 17 18 19 20 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -70 -67 -73 -90 -102 -95 -67 -46 -30 -37 -24 -28 200 MB DIV 9 1 -11 0 -31 5 8 38 26 10 17 8 -17 LAND (KM) 1060 1067 1081 1109 1142 1234 1332 1433 1379 1297 1232 1089 902 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.8 26.3 26.9 27.5 28.7 29.7 30.7 31.5 32.3 33.1 34.6 36.7 LONG(DEG W) 58.6 59.2 59.7 60.2 60.6 61.2 61.3 61.4 61.5 61.3 60.6 60.2 59.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 24 25 24 18 11 7 4 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -19. -25. -31. -34. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -9. -16. -23. -29. -34. -37. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -11. -18. -25. -31. -36. -39. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/10/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/10/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY