* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/10/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 78 78 77 76 74 70 67 65 64 62 61 V (KT) LAND 80 78 78 78 77 76 74 70 67 65 64 62 61 V (KT) LGE mod 80 76 74 73 73 72 70 68 66 63 61 60 59 SHEAR (KTS) 12 4 5 12 10 13 10 12 7 5 2 4 15 SHEAR DIR 213 228 181 199 193 167 192 185 200 161 265 344 5 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.0 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 134 134 133 130 127 124 121 116 112 105 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 115 114 113 109 105 102 100 97 94 91 87 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -54.5 -54.8 -54.3 -54.2 -53.2 -53.5 -52.7 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 42 43 40 43 43 38 41 40 45 41 44 42 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 21 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -63 -79 -90 -87 -84 -66 -49 -54 -77 -92 -77 -20 200 MB DIV -2 -1 -20 -2 1 14 36 14 5 7 -9 31 29 LAND (KM) 1075 1094 1118 1155 1195 1277 1343 1396 1382 1320 1221 1053 837 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.8 27.3 27.9 28.4 29.4 30.0 30.5 31.1 31.9 32.9 34.6 37.0 LONG(DEG W) 59.8 60.3 60.7 61.1 61.4 62.0 61.9 61.9 62.0 62.0 61.8 61.3 60.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 4 3 3 3 5 7 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 25 23 20 10 8 7 5 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -19. -23. -26. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/10/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/10/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY