* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP982008 07/10/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 53 57 57 57 57 59 60 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 53 57 57 57 57 59 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 32 33 34 35 36 36 SHEAR (KTS) 6 9 12 10 14 19 20 21 22 23 19 20 14 SHEAR DIR 72 50 40 34 23 12 41 49 63 55 56 63 92 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.4 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 148 149 156 156 154 151 147 142 138 132 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -53.5 -54.0 -53.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.5 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 8 8 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 85 82 81 84 83 83 82 79 78 69 71 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 40 45 46 48 35 33 43 41 27 16 17 9 200 MB DIV 13 8 24 31 36 53 64 74 25 30 3 1 -4 LAND (KM) 560 599 603 611 629 602 565 549 548 539 566 606 694 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.4 10.4 11.3 12.4 13.2 14.0 14.8 15.6 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 90.5 91.6 92.6 93.8 94.9 97.4 100.0 102.2 104.0 105.7 107.4 109.1 110.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 11 10 9 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 25. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 28. 32. 32. 32. 32. 34. 35. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP982008 INVEST 07/10/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982008 INVEST 07/10/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY