* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/10/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 73 74 74 73 72 69 66 62 59 59 55 V (KT) LAND 75 73 73 74 74 73 72 69 66 62 59 59 55 V (KT) LGE mod 75 70 68 67 66 66 66 66 66 63 59 55 51 SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 9 7 7 4 5 1 6 18 20 21 21 SHEAR DIR 143 123 164 142 134 116 82 76 327 327 348 332 287 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.4 24.6 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 133 134 132 128 126 123 116 111 107 102 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 114 114 114 111 107 104 102 97 93 91 88 86 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 42 39 42 43 41 37 40 40 43 43 45 48 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 17 19 20 21 21 21 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR -63 -77 -84 -81 -87 -88 -77 -74 -73 -98 -97 -69 12 200 MB DIV -4 -17 -2 0 4 9 -16 -9 1 -2 34 14 57 LAND (KM) 1090 1115 1143 1186 1232 1309 1367 1400 1325 1223 1132 952 723 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.4 27.8 28.4 28.9 29.7 30.2 30.9 31.9 32.9 33.9 35.7 38.0 LONG(DEG W) 60.5 60.9 61.2 61.5 61.8 62.0 61.8 61.9 61.9 61.7 61.1 60.9 60.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 6 6 5 3 3 4 5 5 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 23 20 15 9 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 16. 16. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. -13. -13. -18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -16. -20. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/10/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/10/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY