* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP982008 07/10/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 38 44 47 49 51 54 56 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 38 44 47 49 51 54 56 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 30 31 31 32 SHEAR (KTS) 8 12 11 14 18 19 24 26 23 23 20 21 22 SHEAR DIR 51 40 40 32 30 38 59 53 79 75 85 98 109 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 148 150 156 155 153 152 150 148 145 142 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 84 82 83 84 82 84 81 79 73 73 68 69 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 39 41 48 38 41 43 42 37 10 0 6 -6 200 MB DIV 14 33 34 40 48 54 65 55 42 50 9 15 27 LAND (KM) 590 624 620 622 636 596 554 561 582 591 628 685 778 LAT (DEG N) 7.8 8.2 8.6 9.1 9.5 10.5 11.4 12.1 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 90.7 91.8 92.8 94.0 95.2 97.7 100.0 101.8 103.4 104.7 106.1 107.4 109.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 13 13 11 9 8 7 7 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 26. 28. 30. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 22. 24. 26. 29. 31. 33. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP982008 INVEST 07/10/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982008 INVEST 07/10/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY