* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/11/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 74 75 75 75 73 70 67 64 67 64 65 V (KT) LAND 75 74 74 75 75 75 73 70 67 64 67 64 65 V (KT) LGE mod 75 73 71 70 70 69 69 68 66 63 61 60 59 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 9 6 6 6 12 11 18 15 11 7 9 SHEAR DIR 132 168 176 131 130 153 150 185 175 202 183 169 254 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.5 24.8 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 133 133 130 126 123 119 116 112 108 103 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 113 112 109 104 102 97 96 94 91 87 86 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 38 41 43 41 38 44 44 50 47 46 46 51 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 17 17 18 18 20 22 22 26 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR -84 -90 -89 -97 -94 -46 -27 -7 -20 -21 23 70 98 200 MB DIV -19 -15 -1 -4 11 28 16 -1 20 29 31 33 47 LAND (KM) 1113 1147 1184 1223 1263 1342 1392 1369 1334 1258 1149 994 818 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.9 28.4 28.9 29.3 30.1 30.7 31.2 31.6 32.4 33.5 35.0 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 61.0 61.4 61.7 61.9 62.1 62.3 62.1 62.1 62.3 62.3 62.1 61.9 61.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 5 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 22 18 15 10 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 8. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -5. -8. -7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -8. -11. -10. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/11/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/11/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY