* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP982008 07/11/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 45 49 52 54 57 59 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 45 49 52 54 57 59 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 30 31 32 32 SHEAR (KTS) 10 12 12 17 20 20 19 25 21 23 23 21 27 SHEAR DIR 51 35 34 40 36 43 53 69 67 80 100 115 104 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 149 152 155 155 152 151 151 150 148 146 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -53.9 -54.3 -53.7 -54.8 -53.9 -54.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 85 86 86 83 83 83 81 82 77 75 69 68 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 37 45 43 40 32 24 31 24 9 14 17 22 200 MB DIV 37 24 13 32 51 49 77 62 68 50 51 41 57 LAND (KM) 599 605 602 613 648 604 598 636 672 696 726 789 883 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.6 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.5 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.5 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 91.2 92.3 93.4 94.6 95.8 98.1 100.3 102.1 103.6 105.0 106.3 107.6 109.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 7 6 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 33. 35. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 24. 27. 29. 32. 34. 36. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP982008 INVEST 07/11/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 87.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982008 INVEST 07/11/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED