* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/11/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 76 77 78 77 75 73 69 68 63 61 56 V (KT) LAND 75 75 76 77 78 77 75 73 69 68 63 61 56 V (KT) LGE mod 75 75 74 74 73 71 70 68 65 61 57 54 50 SHEAR (KTS) 11 9 6 6 6 6 10 8 20 17 27 24 22 SHEAR DIR 154 162 140 90 119 138 210 245 294 293 277 274 288 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.0 25.5 24.9 24.3 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 131 128 123 119 116 111 107 103 99 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 114 113 110 107 102 99 96 93 90 87 84 83 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 38 39 38 36 38 44 47 48 48 45 45 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 18 18 19 20 23 25 29 28 30 27 850 MB ENV VOR -85 -86 -95 -86 -89 -55 -43 -38 -43 -36 -22 25 49 200 MB DIV -30 -15 5 3 19 12 -2 25 14 29 16 48 23 LAND (KM) 1131 1164 1201 1255 1310 1362 1356 1318 1244 1152 1045 949 883 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.3 28.8 29.4 29.9 30.6 31.3 32.0 32.8 33.8 35.0 36.3 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 61.5 62.0 62.4 62.6 62.7 62.5 62.2 61.8 61.3 60.8 60.3 59.5 58.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 18 11 8 8 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -9. -14. -18. -22. -25. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -9. -10. -16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -2. -6. -7. -12. -14. -19. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/11/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/11/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY