* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP982008 07/11/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 32 41 49 56 62 66 68 69 69 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 32 41 49 56 62 66 68 69 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 29 32 37 42 46 50 52 52 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 10 10 8 9 10 12 11 11 15 15 22 SHEAR DIR 30 37 47 38 31 30 27 54 65 88 99 124 138 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.4 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 149 152 156 157 156 154 150 145 141 138 133 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 10 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 88 86 83 84 82 83 83 80 79 71 70 63 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 48 52 48 49 51 42 27 24 8 18 13 9 200 MB DIV 32 12 36 54 50 66 70 48 36 21 11 -3 1 LAND (KM) 507 489 477 490 490 430 424 437 446 452 511 621 796 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.8 10.3 10.8 11.3 12.1 12.8 13.5 14.1 14.8 15.2 15.4 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 91.4 92.5 93.6 94.8 95.9 98.2 100.3 102.2 103.8 105.5 107.1 109.1 111.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 9 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 17. 27. 34. 40. 42. 43. 44. 44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 4. 7. 16. 24. 31. 37. 41. 43. 44. 44. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP982008 INVEST 07/11/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 87.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982008 INVEST 07/11/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY