* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/11/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 77 78 78 77 77 73 68 68 64 63 62 V (KT) LAND 75 76 77 78 78 77 77 73 68 68 64 63 62 V (KT) LGE mod 75 75 74 74 73 72 72 69 65 60 56 53 51 SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 3 4 4 3 9 20 20 17 20 17 22 SHEAR DIR 154 153 79 62 61 109 322 328 330 308 309 304 299 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.8 25.1 24.6 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 130 128 127 123 118 114 112 109 104 100 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 113 109 107 105 103 98 94 93 91 88 84 83 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 38 38 37 38 42 43 50 52 51 47 48 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 18 18 19 22 24 24 30 30 33 35 850 MB ENV VOR -84 -90 -75 -86 -63 -40 -29 -31 -44 -36 -29 15 56 200 MB DIV -22 11 -3 8 9 -28 4 27 44 21 46 19 29 LAND (KM) 1170 1213 1257 1293 1328 1387 1359 1308 1271 1206 1093 1026 1004 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.8 29.3 29.7 30.0 30.8 31.7 32.3 32.7 33.4 34.6 35.6 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 61.8 62.1 62.3 62.4 62.4 62.1 61.4 60.9 60.7 60.4 60.1 59.3 58.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 3 3 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 14 9 8 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -19. -23. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 9. 8. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. -1. -5. -4. -8. -9. -11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. -2. -7. -7. -11. -12. -13. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/11/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/11/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY