* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP982008 07/11/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 35 45 54 62 67 71 73 74 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 35 45 54 62 67 71 73 74 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 30 35 41 49 56 61 63 63 SHEAR (KTS) 9 15 14 10 12 7 5 4 4 6 5 7 3 SHEAR DIR 55 48 55 45 47 40 45 354 38 84 248 202 117 SST (C) 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.2 27.8 27.3 26.5 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 154 157 158 158 157 154 146 142 137 130 123 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -53.5 -54.2 -53.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.8 -54.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 9 8 10 8 9 7 5 3 700-500 MB RH 87 82 85 82 83 82 82 79 78 70 71 64 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 55 58 59 63 58 52 40 30 29 31 34 24 200 MB DIV 29 49 67 48 60 67 57 40 23 6 0 30 17 LAND (KM) 435 418 427 424 384 329 349 362 356 383 488 612 664 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.9 11.5 11.9 12.3 13.2 13.8 14.6 15.4 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 92.6 93.7 94.7 95.8 96.9 99.0 100.9 102.9 104.8 106.7 108.8 111.2 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 12 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 30. 39. 45. 46. 48. 49. 49. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 10. 20. 29. 37. 43. 46. 48. 49. 49. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP982008 INVEST 07/11/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 87.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982008 INVEST 07/11/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY