* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP992008 07/11/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 37 39 37 31 23 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 37 39 37 31 23 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 11 13 14 12 10 7 11 9 11 10 20 19 SHEAR DIR 68 68 79 91 104 72 48 63 75 113 175 190 208 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 26.4 25.7 25.0 24.1 23.1 22.3 21.7 21.0 20.6 20.5 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 129 121 114 104 94 85 78 70 65 64 62 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 79 76 77 77 68 65 58 57 51 47 40 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 65 54 42 24 2 -6 -6 -7 -2 -10 -2 -5 200 MB DIV 34 30 28 8 -14 -8 -5 -18 -17 -3 -3 -12 -8 LAND (KM) 375 421 478 434 422 517 632 803 905 987 1049 1109 1191 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.7 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.4 23.0 23.5 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.7 109.8 111.0 112.2 114.7 117.0 119.3 121.2 122.8 124.0 125.0 126.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 1. -5. -11. -15. -20. -25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 12. 14. 12. 6. -2. -9. -14. -17. -22. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP992008 INVEST 07/11/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992008 INVEST 07/11/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY