* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/11/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 76 76 76 73 69 61 55 50 44 43 41 V (KT) LAND 75 75 76 76 76 73 69 61 55 50 44 43 41 V (KT) LGE mod 75 75 74 73 72 70 67 64 60 56 53 50 48 SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 3 5 8 10 14 13 21 18 19 16 25 SHEAR DIR 121 93 72 52 53 27 10 11 24 42 20 327 286 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.3 25.6 24.7 24.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 129 126 123 122 118 115 114 109 102 97 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 110 108 104 102 101 98 95 94 92 86 82 81 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -53.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 39 39 40 42 42 43 47 42 43 43 47 51 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 18 18 18 17 17 16 15 17 14 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR -95 -85 -88 -77 -65 -76 -83 -111 -119 -101 -31 49 98 200 MB DIV 3 -20 5 5 -9 7 1 -3 17 -7 13 8 5 LAND (KM) 1200 1253 1307 1346 1384 1409 1348 1319 1289 1199 1058 970 904 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.3 29.8 30.2 30.5 31.1 31.9 32.3 32.7 33.7 35.4 36.6 37.4 LONG(DEG W) 62.1 62.3 62.4 62.4 62.3 61.7 61.0 60.5 60.1 59.7 59.0 58.5 58.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 3 4 4 3 4 7 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 10 7 7 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -23. -26. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -13. -18. -22. -28. -29. -31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -14. -20. -25. -31. -32. -34. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/11/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/11/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY