* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP982008 07/11/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 45 56 64 70 73 74 75 77 75 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 39 45 56 64 70 73 74 75 77 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 46 51 55 56 55 SHEAR (KTS) 17 14 10 12 15 10 13 12 9 9 9 14 11 SHEAR DIR 44 49 45 72 77 70 76 87 80 86 96 132 120 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 158 159 159 157 156 152 145 140 137 130 129 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 7 8 9 8 9 8 7 5 4 700-500 MB RH 82 84 80 81 81 81 78 78 71 72 67 66 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 53 49 48 50 52 42 46 49 31 38 21 17 0 200 MB DIV 60 55 37 50 60 52 28 26 22 20 7 10 20 LAND (KM) 410 432 389 353 328 307 325 348 363 440 581 698 801 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 93.9 95.0 96.0 97.0 98.0 99.7 101.5 103.3 105.1 107.2 109.5 112.0 114.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 23. 31. 39. 44. 46. 48. 49. 48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 14. 20. 31. 39. 45. 48. 49. 50. 52. 50. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP982008 INVEST 07/11/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982008 INVEST 07/11/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY