* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP992008 07/11/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 34 36 37 35 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 34 36 37 35 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 9 12 9 8 10 14 18 11 15 4 2 SHEAR DIR 81 68 74 87 86 60 50 61 62 76 58 101 45 SST (C) 27.4 26.6 25.7 25.0 24.4 23.8 22.7 21.8 21.1 20.6 20.2 20.2 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 131 121 114 107 101 89 79 71 65 61 60 60 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 77 80 78 73 68 63 60 55 50 46 41 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 52 44 26 23 2 -11 -12 -14 -16 -24 -27 -23 200 MB DIV 37 34 3 -13 -12 -1 6 -9 -12 -7 4 -10 -9 LAND (KM) 373 431 403 389 423 516 637 752 805 855 898 942 1016 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.6 19.3 19.8 20.3 21.0 21.5 22.1 22.8 23.4 24.1 24.5 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.4 110.5 111.8 113.0 115.2 117.4 119.2 120.8 122.0 123.0 123.7 124.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -4. -11. -17. -22. -24. -27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 9. 11. 12. 10. 3. -6. -14. -20. -21. -23. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP992008 INVEST 07/11/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992008 INVEST 07/11/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY