* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/12/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 83 83 81 78 72 64 57 49 45 42 39 V (KT) LAND 80 81 83 83 81 78 72 64 57 49 45 42 39 V (KT) LGE mod 80 81 80 78 76 73 69 63 58 54 50 48 46 SHEAR (KTS) 5 1 3 6 8 10 12 18 25 23 16 10 17 SHEAR DIR 96 322 9 46 65 52 16 30 34 34 27 323 276 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.3 26.0 26.0 25.6 24.9 24.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 126 124 123 120 114 109 110 108 102 98 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 108 104 101 101 100 95 90 90 91 86 81 83 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 36 38 40 37 37 43 38 39 37 44 51 59 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 20 18 19 19 18 18 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR -95 -89 -71 -73 -79 -82 -100 -127 -121 -85 -53 -4 21 200 MB DIV -29 7 26 0 -30 2 -2 -8 15 12 22 35 0 LAND (KM) 1257 1302 1347 1370 1371 1360 1292 1242 1236 1175 1051 1020 1062 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.8 30.2 30.4 30.6 31.2 32.2 32.7 32.8 33.5 34.9 35.4 35.1 LONG(DEG W) 62.3 62.4 62.5 62.5 62.4 62.2 62.0 61.8 61.6 61.1 60.4 59.9 59.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 2 3 4 4 2 2 6 6 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -21. -25. -30. -32. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -8. -15. -21. -28. -32. -35. -39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 3. 1. -2. -8. -16. -23. -31. -35. -38. -41. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/12/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/12/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY