* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/12/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 79 78 76 72 65 56 53 47 43 43 38 V (KT) LAND 80 80 79 78 76 72 65 56 53 47 43 43 38 V (KT) LGE mod 80 79 78 77 75 71 66 61 56 52 49 48 47 SHEAR (KTS) 4 3 7 8 11 13 21 23 25 17 19 4 19 SHEAR DIR 73 57 32 30 27 17 19 32 37 46 50 49 271 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.4 25.2 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 127 125 122 119 116 113 109 105 105 104 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 105 105 103 101 98 96 93 90 87 86 86 85 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.0 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 36 39 37 36 37 40 37 38 41 50 56 56 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 18 18 18 19 17 16 18 16 16 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR -90 -69 -71 -74 -79 -85 -105 -105 -101 -71 -32 1 29 200 MB DIV 4 20 -3 -24 -9 17 3 23 18 22 13 12 -26 LAND (KM) 1272 1298 1323 1362 1357 1343 1324 1268 1199 1151 1127 1089 1032 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.4 30.7 31.2 31.7 32.4 33.1 33.6 33.9 34.4 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.5 62.4 62.3 62.1 61.8 61.6 61.3 60.8 60.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 3 2 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -15. -21. -25. -30. -33. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -3. -3. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -14. -22. -25. -31. -35. -35. -40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -24. -27. -33. -37. -37. -42. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/12/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/12/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY