* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * SIX EP062008 07/12/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 55 65 72 75 77 75 74 71 66 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 55 65 72 75 77 75 74 71 66 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 47 51 59 67 72 74 73 69 64 57 SHEAR (KTS) 8 12 14 13 11 9 12 8 7 6 14 17 20 SHEAR DIR 54 48 62 73 60 78 81 89 101 93 123 144 168 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.5 26.0 25.9 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 160 158 153 144 140 136 128 123 122 119 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.3 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 7 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 82 82 76 77 72 70 66 64 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 47 38 42 48 46 39 17 18 10 11 1 -4 200 MB DIV 42 56 76 70 54 28 24 18 20 6 16 11 4 LAND (KM) 377 335 298 305 318 337 361 416 511 596 622 715 855 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.2 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.1 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 96.3 97.5 98.7 99.9 101.1 103.3 105.4 107.4 109.2 110.9 112.7 114.7 116.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 9 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 23. 23. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 19. 29. 36. 40. 43. 41. 40. 36. 31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 15. 20. 30. 37. 40. 42. 40. 39. 36. 31. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 SIX 07/12/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 SIX 07/12/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED