* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP992008 07/12/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 25 24 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 25 24 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 16 11 14 9 11 11 16 10 12 16 19 26 SHEAR DIR 61 69 57 57 60 22 54 69 134 139 168 159 165 SST (C) 25.9 24.9 23.8 23.1 22.4 21.5 20.9 20.4 20.0 19.5 19.0 18.6 18.3 POT. INT. (KT) 123 113 101 93 86 76 70 64 59 58 58 58 58 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 81 78 74 72 68 63 58 53 48 41 35 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 33 16 4 0 -16 -40 -43 -55 -53 -43 -21 -13 200 MB DIV 8 -12 -2 2 -19 -10 -8 -11 0 7 -6 -7 -18 LAND (KM) 368 295 279 321 326 390 446 444 430 452 438 427 427 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.4 21.1 21.7 22.2 23.0 24.0 25.1 26.1 27.0 27.8 28.6 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.7 110.8 111.9 112.9 113.8 115.6 117.0 118.3 118.9 119.5 119.6 120.0 120.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 12 10 9 9 8 6 6 4 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -7. -13. -20. -28. -35. -41. -46. -50. -54. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 0. -1. -4. -10. -17. -26. -35. -40. -45. -48. -52. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP992008 INVEST 07/12/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992008 INVEST 07/12/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY